SINGAPORE: Singapore's current Budget Terminal may be shifted to make way for a fourth terminal that analysts say is likely to take place closer to the end of the decade.
That is because once the ASEAN Open Skies agreement is in place by 2015, passenger traffic will likely grow by at least five per cent each year.
Analysts Channel NewsAsia spoke with said with the growth of passenger volume, comes the need for expansion.
Changi
Airport's existing three terminals can accommodate about 70 million
passengers annually, and passenger traffic this year is likely to exceed
last year's 42 million.
Shukor Yusof, and aviation analyst with
Standard & Poor's, said: "We still have some capacity with Terminal 3
still not being maximised yet, there's still a lot of room there.
"But
beyond that, obviously there is going to be a need to expand the
airport with the new terminal, given the increase in low cost travel,
even in the expansion of new discount carriers in the region."
Given
the economic uncertainties, the remaining capacity is likely to be
taken up once the ASEAN Open Skies agreement kicks in, in 2015. The
agreement will fully liberalise air travel between the grouping's
10-member states.
Mr Yusof said: "It will vary obviously because
we are going into a very difficult period for the next, two, three years
at least, because of the problems in Europe, in North America. But that
being the case, there is still tremendous growth in this part of the
world, and that's going to be increased in our opinion when 2015 Open
Skies kicks into place, depending on how quickly countries in the
region, in ASEAN react to that.
"The potential for that is huge,
it could be anywhere between five to 10 per cent (growth) for some
countries or even more than that, depending on how they exploit the
possibilities of that happening.
"I think they will have to agree
to whether they want to construct a new terminal when open skies kicks
in in 2015, and then they will have an idea of how the traffic flow will
be, and how the rest of the ASEAN developing as well, that will give
them a sense of indication as well, how the market is going to be like.
"Certainly,
I think there is no doubt that there will be a need for Terminal 4,
beyond this decade. But if they do decide, then the construction will
probably begin towards the later part of this decade, which is after
2015."
Gary Ho, senior lecturer of Aviation Management &
Services at Temasek Polytechnic, said: "The philosophy at Changi is
always build ahead of demand, so if you look at Terminal 3, that's how
they built it. Our airport has always been sized, way before the need
arises."
In March 2008, the Transport Ministry confirmed that
Singapore will have a Terminal 4 at Changi Airport. This was mentioned
in Parliament, just two months after the opening of Terminal 3 in
January. Since then, authorities have been working on the master plan
but little has been revealed about the details.
There have been
talks that Terminal 4 is likely to be located on reclaimed land, along
Changi Coast Road, near to runway three. But sources tell Channel
NewsAsia that the area where the current Budget Terminal is located is
another potential site.
Mr Yusof said: "It would be possible for
them to do that, but then again, they would have to relocate the low
cost terminal somewhere, so they would have to weigh that in their
decision. I think anywhere within the boundaries of Changi within the
proximity of the three terminals, would be an excellent choice because
of the connectivity."
Mr Ho added: "If you look at the location
of the current budget terminal, it is very small, you know you are
constrained by the SATS Building, the Inflight Catering Centre, and you
are also constrained by the golf course, and also some of the ancillary
services. If you are going to build Terminal 4 there, you are actually
building a terminal that is very constrained."
It is understood
that if the Budget Terminal makes way for Terminal 4, all budget
carriers will then operate out of Terminals 1 and 2.
-CNA/ac